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During the holiday, Lun aluminum showed a decline and then a rise, during which the lowest fell to 1700 US dollars / ton, and the overall center of gravity shifted
slightly downward.
Domestically, Shanghai aluminum before the holiday is still dominated by short exits, Shanghai aluminum stopped falling and repaired the previous day's decline, closing at 14015 yuan / ton, still below all daily moving
averages.
Eleven, the logic of domestic fundamentals has changed, from the expectation of demand recovery in the third quarter to the expectation of supply increase in the fourth quarter, the pressure on the supply side has increased, and the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum has shifted significantly
.
On a macro front, White House economic adviser Kudlow said Monday that trade negotiators could make progress when they meet in Washington this week and delist Chinese listed companies in the United States "out of discussion.
"
The two sides sent optimistic signals, easing nervousness over the outcome of this
week's trade talks.
In terms of inventory, affected by downstream replenishment before the National Day, the domestic social aluminum ingot inventory continued to drop to 939,000 tons
.
At present, Wan Si is still an important pressure level, and it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will maintain oscillation during the week, or will repeatedly test the Wan 4 pressure line, and the operating range is concentrated between 13900~14100 yuan / ton
.
In summary, the operating range of Shanghai-aluminum 1911 contract is mainly fluctuating at 13900-14100 yuan / ton, and it is recommended to wait and see
for the time being.
