Macro negative sentiment continues, and the weak pattern of Shanghai copper will not change

Last week, Lun Tong's high probed
.
The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was 7351.
5 US dollars / ton, down 167.
5 US dollars / ton per day; The weekly average price was 7762.
75 US dollars / ton, down 411.
25 US dollars / ton compared with the average price last week, down 5.
30%.

In terms of supply, there are many disturbances in overseas copper mines, while the domestic supply repair is basically in line with expectations, and the supply of raw materials is relatively abundant; The possibility of inventory continuing to dematerialize sharply is decreasing, but the accumulation expectation is rising, the supply shift from tight balance to excess coupled with the sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices, and the high production enthusiasm of smelters driven by high profits; Although some refineries are in the maintenance period, electrolytic copper production remains high and the increase is obvious, and there is an expectation
of climbing in the future.

On the demand side, the overall domestic consumer market is weak, although driven by national policies, supported by the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the rise of the photovoltaic industry and the recovery of the copper rod operating rate to 69.
44% in June
.
However, the production and sales of the copper rod market were weak, and the operating rate remained low in June
.
And the characteristics of the off-season consumption season are obvious, the market confidence is seriously insufficient, and there is no obvious sign
of strengthening on the demand side.
Therefore, both procurement and downstream starts are performing poorly, and supply
is expected to slow down.

In terms of inventories, Shanghai copper inventories continued to rise last week, accumulating an increase of 1,979 tons to 71,332 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
85%.

London copper stocks fell slightly last week, with a cumulative decrease of 2,600 tonnes to 130425 tonnes, or 1.
95%.

In terms of spot, as pessimism continued to loom over the spot market purchasing sentiment remained cautious, coupled with the entry into the seasonal consumption off-season, downstream procurement became more and more muted
in the price decline.
Traders enter the market to receive goods enthusiasm deviation, market trading enthusiasm decreased, and Shanghai epidemic has repeatedly increased, coupled with the downstream market fear of decline, market demand is suppressed, so that the growth of social inventory is obvious, the current terminal industry performance is still not good, traditional demand off-season performance is obvious
.

The recent negative macro sentiment continues, the global central bank actively raises interest rates under high inflation, and the economic growth rate in Europe and the United States continues to slow down, which will drag down overseas copper consumption
.
Coupled with the negative feedback of high oil prices, oil prices have fallen below $100 per barrel
.
Domestic high temperature warning, consumption off-season effect gradually appeared, and in the second half of the year copper supply pressure is increasingly apparent, the inventory in the previous period continues to increase, the subsequent probability of accumulation of inventory, while the domestic epidemic spread at multiple points, aggravating demand worries, Shanghai copper fell sharply during the week, and the weak trend is difficult to reverse
.
Copper prices are expected to continue their downward trend
.