Macro market long and short intertwined, short-term copper prices continue to fluctuate

Domestically, the NDRC said that from January to October, the amount of investment in new intentional investment projects nationwide increased by 3.
0% year-on-year, down 1.
4 percentage points
from the end of the third quarter.
According to the Bureau of Statistics, in 2017, the economic added value of the "three new" (new industries, new formats and new business models) in the country was 129578 billion yuan, equivalent to 15.
7% of GDP, an increase of 0.
4 percentage points over the previous year; the growth rate at current prices was 14.
1%, 2.
9 percentage points
higher than the current price growth rate of GDP in the same period.

Internationally, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index ended in November at its lowest level since August, with consumers' expectations for both the current and future conditions falling
.
U.
S.
first-time applications rose 3,000 last week to 224,000, a more than four-month high, but the overall trend still points to a continued tight job market
.

Industry News:

1.
Chile's major copper mining companies have not declined in production this year
.
According to a new report by Fitch Macro Research, copper production in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, will rise 2% by the end of this year and is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2019, mainly due to stronger performance from large copper mining companies, upgraded operations at existing mines and reduced
strike risks.

According to foreign media reports, at least nine major copper smelters around the world plan to carry out factory overhauls in the first half of 2019, and like most major industrial plants, copper smelters are closed every two to three years for maintenance to complete basic repairs to facilities such as furnaces, otherwise these equipment will burn permanently to temperatures up to 1,000 degrees Celsius for flash smelting
.
A more extensive overhaul program
was undertaken in 2019 following disruptions at major smelters in Asia that led to bottlenecks in the copper supply chain in 2018.

Outlook for the future: After the update of the "201 Survey" report in the United States, it has led to disputes between the two countries, and the market is worried that the Sino-US trade talks will add more variables, and the non-ferrous metals market is generally under pressure; Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak next week, and the market expects the interest rate hike cycle to end early, and the suppression of commodity markets by a strong dollar may be coming to an end
.
Investors are concerned about whether China and the United States can reach a further détente on the trade dispute between China and the United States at the G20 summit, which will directly affect the US dollar and commodity prices; Although there are no signs of a sharp downturn in the economy, the global economic growth has slowed
down due to trade conflicts and other reasons.
In the short term, the fundamentals may tend to be calm, the macro market is intertwined, and copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate next
week.