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On Monday, the main monthly 2303 contract of Shanghai copper ran strongly, with a gratifying rally, opening at 64860 yuan / ton, and closing at 66090 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton, or 1.
54%.
The weakening of the US dollar approached a new low in more than half a year, the market risk appetite turned optimistic, non-ferrous metals were generally boosted and rising, coupled with the continuous promotion of domestic favorable policies, the outlook for metal demand was enhanced, and Shanghai copper was running
strongly.
In terms of spot, on January 9, the trading price of CCMN Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 66290-66330 yuan / ton, the average price was 66310 yuan, up 1080 yuan / ton; The premium was reported at 90 to 130 yuan / ton, with an average price of 110 yuan, down 50 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the sentiment of holders to support prices is still high, the willingness of downstream replenishment is weakened, the spot premium continues to fall, and the overall transaction is weak
.
On the supply side, overseas mine production continued to be disrupted; The overall domestic smelting profit is still at a high level, but the release of production capacity is less than expected due to the impact of maintenance and the epidemic, and the spot supply is still tight; In terms of inventories, weekly Shanghai copper inventories continued to accumulate on Friday, adding more than 10,000 tons to more than 8 tons, rising to a one-and-a-half-month high, although London copper stocks retreated
.
In terms of demand, at present, on the eve of the Spring Festival, downstream consumption has weakened, some terminal enterprises have entered the state of early holiday, the order volume has decreased, the operating rate continues to decline, and demand is still weak
.
The weakening of the US dollar approached a more than half-year low, and the market's risk appetite turned optimistic, boosting the general strengthening of non-ferrous metal prices, and Shanghai copper extended Friday's
soaring rally.
Coupled with the positive domestic macro policies, it is necessary to take more measures to stimulate real estate demand and promote market confidence
.
However, the situation of weak fundamentals has not changed, the pattern of weak supply and demand has been maintained, and consumption in the off-season has increased
.
In addition, near the holiday, terminal projects gradually stopped production, downstream operating rate continued to weaken, processing enterprises successively reduced the number of holiday orders, last week copper stocks increased by 11,000 tons to 80,000 tons, around the Spring Festival domestic copper inventory range or higher than in previous years
.
Therefore, the upside of copper prices is still subject to the pull of weak reality
.
Overall, macro expectations are optimistic, the US dollar has pulled back sharply, providing support for metal prices, superimposed copper prices are more resilient, the low inventory pattern is difficult to change, and the short-term Shanghai copper is strong, with a range of 65000-68000
.
