Macro expectations are good, and PVC demand is expected to improve

In the macro aspect, wide credit and stable growth are the main tone of the domestic economy this year, and China's GDP growth is expected to be at the level
of 5.
5%.
At present, the main contradiction affecting the market is: the outbreak
of the epidemic in many places.
By May at the latest, the outbreak is under control and is more likely to disperse
.
Recently, Premier Li Keqiang emphasized: "Make good use of government bonds to expand effective investment, promote making up for shortcomings, increase stamina and stable economic growth
.
" "With steady growth and loosening of policies such as real estate and increasing the weight; In the later period, the recovery of the domestic economy, infrastructure and property market is still expected
.

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotations in East China rose slightly this week to 9350 yuan / ton; The basis is +98 yuan/ton
.
Warehouse orders, the number of futures registered receipts increased to 1684 lots (8420 tons).

In terms of inventory, as of April 1, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 326,800 tons, -0.
59% week-on-week; +10.
24%
YoY.
It seems that the inventory pressure is not large, and the "destocking" stage continues
.

In terms of starts, the overall PVC operating load increased slightly this week
.
As of April 7, the overall operating load of PVC was 82.
4%, +0.
22% month-on-month; Among them, the calcium carbide method was 83.
6% and the ethylene method was 77.
8%.

According to statistics, the loss caused by shutdown and maintenance this week was 38,500 tons, +03,300 tons
week-on-week.
As April and May enter the spring inspection period, the operating rate will decline
.

In terms of supply and demand, the upstream calcium carbide start is relatively stable, the supply is sufficient, and the transportation is not smooth, resulting in the downstream purchase price being reduced by 100 yuan / ton
.
Recently, PVC manufacturers have received orders generally, but there is no sales pressure, and the inventory of some factories has increased
.
In terms of exports, there are still new orders, and there are more
orders to be delivered.
The start of downstream product enterprises is low, mainly based on rigid transactions
.
Up to now, the ex-factory price of trade calcium carbide in Wuhai is 4200-4250 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
from last Thursday.

In the short term, there are no obvious drivers for PVC fundamentals; However, in the medium and long term, macro expectations are good, and the demand side is expected to improve
.
Therefore, the PVC futures market is expected to maintain a strong state
in the volatility pattern.