Macro atmosphere dominates copper price trend Market activity appears average

In the week of September 30, domestic spot copper prices rebounded
from a low level.
According to data from the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Network, the average price of spot 1# copper in the Yangtze River was 62,062 yuan / ton, down 82 yuan / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 63374 yuan / ton, down 1312 yuan / ton from last week, a cumulative decline of 2.
07%.

The average price of Guangdong spot 1# copper was 61844 yuan / ton, down 118 yuan / ton per day, compared with 63154 yuan / ton in the previous week, down 1310 yuan / ton from last week, a cumulative decline of 2.
07%.

On the supply side, copper stocks in Europe continued to increase, with London copper stocks up 8.
44% this week; In August, copper production increased due to the completion of maintenance of some smelters in China and the expansion of production capacity of Fuye headquarters; In terms of the September smelter scheduling plan, the domestic smelter has completely escaped the impact of power rationing, and the maintenance concentration is not high, and the output of individual southern refineries that have previously extended maintenance is expected to return to normal, superimposed on the expansion of Fuye production capacity to continue to climb production, it is expected that domestic electrolytic copper production in September will increase
month-on-month.
However, the supply side may be subject to the LME sanctions on Russian metals, making the already tight situation more obvious, and imported copper is difficult to supplement the domestic market in large quantities, and the spot shortage situation continues to be maintained
before the holiday.

In terms of demand, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to prepare stocks before the holiday is still high, and the main large and medium-sized copper rod enterprises in China are more active, with a comprehensive operating rate of about 72.
28%, up 3.
35 percentage points
from last week.
The pre-holiday reserve of downstream cable companies has also been significantly improved, and many copper companies have reported a significant increase in orders, and the fundamentals are healthy
.
In the Golden Nine Silver Ten, the fields of electricity, infrastructure and traditional consumption have picked up, coupled with the promotion of home appliances to stimulate consumption to rebound
.
Overall, under the tone of high premium and high basis, the overall transaction performance enthusiasm of terminal enterprises has not weakened significantly, and the willingness to purchase replenishment is still relatively positive, but the real estate side is still the main drag on copper consumption
.

In terms of spot, the market transaction atmosphere gradually weakened after the November long holiday, the stocking of various enterprises slowed down, the spot remained tight, the premium structure was strong, there was pressure to force positions before the delivery in October, and the terminal still maintained a cautious trading psychology based on just need procurement
.
However, macro bearish sentiment affects the overall bearish downstream, a small number of merchants purchase according to orders, lack of excess stocking, so the overall transaction activity of the spot market appears to be general, and the transaction performance is far-fetched
.