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On October 19, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures opened at 18310 yuan / ton, the highest intraday touch was 18390 yuan / ton, and the lowest test was 18180 yuan / ton; So far, the main force of Shanghai aluminum has fallen by 0.
14% to 18290 yuan / ton
.
In the external market, as of now, LME aluminum opened at $2186, the highest price was $2209.
5, the lowest price was $2185, and now it is $2198
.
On the macro front, US inflation remains high at present, reinforcing expectations
of interest rate hikes.
In the short term
, watch for an inflection point in tightening expectations around the US midterm elections on November 8.
Fundamentals, supply side, European energy crisis continues to ferment, overseas electrolytic aluminum production is still facing impact
.
Moreover, the power problem has greatly reduced the pressure on the supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, and the market's worries about the supply side have not completely dissipated; On the demand side, domestic downstream processing enterprises are slowly recovering, there are signs of marginal improvement in consumption, and high energy prices support the high cost of electrolytic aluminum, which will provide some support
for aluminum prices.
Industry news, on October 19, Rio Tinto's latest data released data showed that aluminum production in the third quarter of 2022 was 759,000 tons, an increase of 4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 2%; As of September 30, 2022, aluminum production was 2.
226 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.
Maintain full-year shipment guidance unchanged at 3-3.
1 million mt
.
As of September 30, the average production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China was 18898.
8 yuan / ton, a decrease of 265.
20 yuan / ton from the previous period, and the average loss of the industry was 558.
80 yuan / ton; The weighted average production cost was 17668.
26 yuan / ton, a decrease of 106.
92 yuan / ton
from the end of last month.
The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum involving profit statistics in this period was 39.
617 million tons, almost unchanged
from the previous month.
According to monitoring data, the industry lost 7.
195 million tons of production capacity in September, accounting for 18.
16%.
In general, in the context of the macro and fundamental game, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will be mainly
oscillated at the bottom of 18000-18800 yuan / ton.
