Lun aluminum retreated during the holiday period Upper resistance reference around 1795

From a macro perspective, US non-farm payrolls in May were significantly lower than expected, hitting a three-month low; The U.
S.
trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in April, with merchandise imports hitting a 15-month low
.
The IMF raised its U.
S.
economic growth forecast, but said trade and markets posed a risk to economic growth, and Lagarde said trade frictions would hit the global economy
hard.
The United States considered delaying tariffs on Mexico, and U.
S.
stocks rose
.

In Europe, household consumption spending is strong, the final GDP of the euro area in the first quarter is in line with expectations year-on-year, the European Central Bank has revised its forward guidance again, maintaining interest rates at least until the first half of 2020, and announcing key details of TLTRO, Draghi said that the forward guidance adjustment is not biased towards raising interest rates, raising economic growth and inflation expectations
this year.

Domestically, the Tariff Commission of the State Council believes that the extension of the transition period measures by the United States does not change its nature of increasing tariffs on China from May 10, and central bank governor Yi Gang pointed out that China has sufficient policy space to deal with trade frictions
.
During the holiday, the renminbi continued to break, and base metals both fell both inside and outside
.

From the perspective of the industry, the previously announced electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues to fall, and the inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges is also falling, which has a certain degree of support for aluminum prices, but alumina prices have stopped rising, and aluminum downstream consumption expectations are empty in the off-season, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.

In terms of spot trading, the market trading atmosphere is not as good as before, the trading situation of traders is average, and the overall transaction is also average
.
On the news, Qinghai Dongxin Aluminum Industry was put into production
.

Operationally, the recent trend of Shanghai aluminum is weak, mainly because the price of alumina stops rising and the subsequent downstream consumption expectations are empty, the external economic data during the Dragon Boat Festival is not ideal, the entire non-ferrous sector is weak, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk
of continued weakening of the internal and external disks.
The lower support of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum refers to around 13900, and the upper resistance refers to around
14180.