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Last week, aluminum prices continued to be affected by the futures market, and after hitting a new high in recent years, they fluctuated
sharply.
The medium-term rally of London aluminum continued, and it continued to fluctuate
sharply after touching the upper resistance.
Shanghai aluminum rally maintained, once hitting a new five-year high, and then was blocked from falling slightly and fluctuating
sharply.
In terms of macro, the current market is overly sensitive to macro sentiment, and the macro sentiment atmosphere continues to spread
.
Domestically, the news of Mongolia's production cuts in the previous period attracted attention, and the violent entry of long funds drove aluminum prices up; In the later period, the recovery of U.
S.
bond yields lowered the performance of global stock markets, superimposed on the strong fall of Shanghai nickel, the non-ferrous sector fell across the board, and aluminum was relatively resistant
.
In terms of fundamentals, aluminum social stocks are still in the accumulation cycle, accumulating 91,000 tons in the week to reach 1.
173 million tons
.
Downstream aluminum rod stocks were 263,200 tons, a slight decrease of 0.
09 million tons
from the previous week.
The high aluminum price in the early stage failed to succeed in the processing fee feedback, the processing fee of aluminum rod fell by 30-50 yuan / ton, the price of finished products such as aluminum alloy remained stable, downstream processing enterprises continued to bear high pressure, and the spot market volume was cold
.
By March 2, the price of aluminum partially fell to 16,900 yuan / ton, and a small number of downstream enterprises entered the market to purchase with a bottom-hunting mentality, and the transaction was concentrated in East China, and the overall receipt of goods in the spot market has not improved
.
The key to the fundamentals in the later period is the accumulation of statistical inventory changes such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods; The second is whether the rise in aluminum prices can be smoothly transmitted to the terminal, and the demand is expected to land
.
In terms of inventory, the inventories of the two major exchanges at home and abroad contradict each other, Shanghai aluminum inventories continue to rise but the increase has narrowed, and Lun aluminum inventories continue to decline
.
In the spot market, the price of alumina was lowered by 10-30 yuan / ton this week, the cost of coal power rose slightly, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum increased to 3000-5000 yuan / ton, and there is little room for profit shrinkage under high aluminum prices
.
At present, the peak season demand is expected to be good, inventory will return to decomposition, low inventory logic or reproduction, aluminum still has upside
.
In the short and medium term, the price may maintain a high and wide range of oscillations, and a phased correction
is not excluded.
