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Goldman Sachs analysts said that although OPEC+ decided on Thursday to continue to increase production as planned, this decision will not destroy the ongoing structural bull market, and oil prices are still expected to rise
.
The bank sees "very clear upside risk"
to its forecast for Brent crude to average $85 per barrel in 2023.
U.
S.
shale producers will be cautious about their spending plans for 2022 due to the recent low oil prices
.
Goldman Sachs said that while shale oil production growth has slowed, the organization's spare capacity will be reduced
at a faster rate than if OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases.
This is especially true
if no deal is reached next year to allow more Iranian oil to enter the market.
Goldman Sachs analysts said the recent price drop was a bit overdone due to fears that the omicron variant would disrupt demand, and the current price offered "attractive opportunities"
for reinvestment.
Brent crude futures briefly fell to $66 a barrel early Thursday after OPEC+'s decision to increase production, before rebounding to $70 a barrel as OPEC+ reserved the possibility
of further immediate adjustments if necessary.
Goldman Sachs said that in the short term, the oil market needs more information about the toxicity of the latest variant to start oil prices to recover, and may need more evidence of tight spot markets to push oil prices above
$80 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs also said that while OPEC+ has often reiterated caution over the past year, Thursday's decision was in line with
previous decisions to increase supply in a weak demand environment.
It has also eased tensions between the group and the U.
S
.
government.
Last month, after U.
S.
crude prices rose to a seven-year high, the U.
S.
government coordinated the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
by major oil consumers.