Long and short divergence is large, Shanghai copper short-term shock adjustment

Market focus: (1) AMRO said it expects headline inflation to rise above 3.
5% in the second quarter, which may lead to a change in the wording
of the Fed's FOMC meeting in June.
(2) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the relief bill triggered concerns about a rapid rise in inflation, which is clearly in a misplaced state
.
(3) Labor negotiations broke down at Chile's largest copper mine in Antofagasta, which produced 372,100 tons
last year.
(4) According to reports, China's electrolytic copper production in February 2021 was 821,800 tons, an increase of 2.
89% month-on-month and 20.
31%
year-on-year.
The output in March is expected to be 854,800 tons, an increase of 4.
01% month-on-month and 14.
94%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On March 10, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 65300-65740 yuan / ton, with an average price of 65520 yuan / ton, down 1040 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals reported that some traders tested the water at high prices, downstream consumption improved slightly, and the overall transaction was limited
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 91,789 tons on Wednesday, a daily increase of 1,123 tons; On March 9, LME copper stocks stood at 85,050 tonnes, up 800 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract were 83074 lots, a daily increase of 665 lots, short positions were 85443 lots, a daily increase of 2481 lots, a net short position of 2369 lots, a daily increase of 1816 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2105 fluctuated down
on March 10.
Optimistic progress on the $1.
9 trillion stimulus package in the United States, a strong dollar index, and higher US bond yields weakened the valuation
of risky assets.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continue to decline, and processing fee TC continues to decline, resulting in high smelting costs, and the recent risk of copper mine strikes in Chile has revived, and copper mine tightening concerns have increased
.
The performance of downstream domestic demand is still weak, but domestic inventories are still significantly lower than the same period of previous years; With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March and April, downstream demand is still expected to improve, which supports copper prices
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2105 contract has a large long-short divergence in the near future, focusing on the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.