LLDPE retreated sharply to hit market sentiment

From a technical point of view, the LLDPE1709 contract opened briefly and then retreated, with a narrow consolidation during the session, and a rapid retreat at the end of the session, closing out a long solid negative bar
with an upper shadow.
The 5-day moving average, 10-day moving average and 20-day moving average turn downward, indicating that the market is still in a downward channel and is more likely to continue to fall
.
The MACD upward gap gradually closes, and the red column is significantly shortened; KDJ diverged downward, showing a dead cross trend, indicating that the market may continue to fall in the near future
.

The bullish strength indicator shows that the current bearish forces clearly have the upper hand, the overbought phenomenon in the early stage has been effectively repaired, and the oversold phenomenon has appeared slightly
.
Without considering the impact of international crude oil, the possibility of opening low on April 11 is greater, you need to pay attention to the support strength of today's low, if the point shows strong support, then rebound after a short shock, observe the pressure strength of the 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average adhesion point, if the point can not form a strong pressure, then observe the full consolidation after the continuation of the rebound; If today's low can not show strong support, it will continue to fall after a short consolidation, and observe the support strength at the 9,000 yuan / ton level
.

The PP1709 contract opened slightly lower, after a short consolidation, the shock retreated, the intraday narrow consolidation, and the end of the day quickly lower, closing the long solid black bar
with the upper shadow.
The 5-day and 10-day moving averages turn downward, indicating that the current market is still in a downward channel
.
The MACD upward gap gradually closes, and the red column is significantly shortened; KDJ intersects downwards and walks out of the dead cross, indicating that there is a possibility
that the market will continue to fall in the near future.
The bullish strength indicator shows that the current bearish forces have the upper hand, and the overbought phenomenon in the early stage has been effectively repaired
.

Without considering the impact of international crude oil, the possibility of opening low on April 11 is greater, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support shown by today's low, if the position cannot show strong support, it will continue to fall back after full shock, and observe the support strength of the previous low; If the position shows strong support, it will rebound after a short consolidation, observe the pressure strength of the 10-day moving average, if the 10-day moving average cannot show strong pressure, it will rebound again after a short consolidation, observe the pressure strength
of the 5-day moving average.

From a fundamental point of view, although there are still some petrochemical ex-factory prices rising today, increasing the support for the cost of supply, but affected by the downward trend of futures shocks, merchants actively increase shipments, and there is no lack of small concessions
.
Downstream factories are more cautious in the real market, and the lack of transaction follow-up further aggravates the downward pressure
on the market.
Under the background of short market supply and demand fundamentals, the confidence of the industry in the future market has not yet recovered
.

To sum up, LLDPE fell sharply at the beginning of this week after last week's volatile rise, which dealt a certain blow
to the cash market mentality.
Last week, there were only three working days, the source of goods accumulated during the Qingming holiday was not effectively digested, affected by the cautious mentality of downstream delivery, the early accumulation of goods is difficult to digest quickly, intermediate links, inventory has been accumulated
.
Due to the completion of the main contract change and the weakening of the liquidity of the May contract, it is recommended to wait and see cautiously after taking profits from the position of the previous L-PP expansion operation in the near future, and wait for the release of important economic data this week
.