LLDPE reduces positions and rushes higher There is still room for growth in the short term

News: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2019, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide fell by 0.
8% year-on-year and 0.
1% month-on-month; Industrial producer purchase prices decreased 1.
3% year-on-year and 0.
2%
month-on-month.
Among them, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 4.
6% year-on-year and 0.
1% month-on-month; Chemical fiber manufacturing fell 8.
9% year-on-year and 2.
3% month-on-month; From January to August, the ex-factory price of industrial producers increased by 0.
1% compared with the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 0.
2%.

Among them, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 31% year-on-year; Chemical fiber manufacturing fell 2.
8%
year-on-year.

As of September 12, polyolefin inventories in major domestic ports continued to fall, reporting 321,300 tons, down 12,200 tons from last week and 79,700 tons
from the same period last year.

Spot market: The domestic polyethylene market is generally rising
.
Most of the opening prices of the main regional sales companies have moved up, ranging from
100-200 yuan / ton.
Driven by crude oil, linear futures gap opened high, spot merchants sold high, market transactions were smooth, and the center of gravity of transactions moved
upward.
As of the noon close, most of the North China market was 100-200 yuan / ton; East China market rose 100-200 yuan / ton; The South China market rose by about 100 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 4291 lots, -303 lots; It is in the all-time high zone
.
Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 216418 lots, -25904 lots, short positions are 236236 lots, -40040 lots, net positions are -19818 lots, net space is reduced
.

Summary: The attack on two important oil fields in Saudi Arabia on September 14 is expected to affect the global crude oil supply in the short term, and the National Day holiday is approaching, and downstream companies also have certain stock demand, resulting in an improvement in the spot market
.
Port inventories declined, down 79,700 tons year-on-year, and PE inventories of two barrels of oil continued to decrease significantly, and the decline was relatively large, reaching 10.
98%.

The display destocking speed is
acceptable.
Although downstream demand is expected to improve, there are signs of tightening environmental protection before the holiday, and some places even have measures to stop production and work, which is expected to inhibit the enthusiasm
of downstream enterprises to prepare materials to a certain extent.
And the petrochemical and other equipment for later maintenance has been started up one after another, which has also increased the supply
of the market to a certain extent.
Therefore, it is expected that there is still room for upside in the short term, but the momentum for a sharp upward trend in medium-term prices is still lacking.

In terms of operation, if there is a sharp rise in the future market, it is recommended that investors reduce their holdings
in the hands of the high.