LLDPE rebound is weak to maintain weak volatility

Market situation: On Monday, the main contract of L2001 rebounded, and the futures price closed at 7535 yuan / ton, +0.
67% from the previous trading day; Volume 407002 lot; Position 606564 lots, -14330 lots
.

News: 1.
Shenhua Baotou will build 700,000 tons/year polyolefin and supporting equipment in Jiuyuan Industrial Park, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with an estimated investment of 17.
15 billion yuan
.
If the renovation and expansion is completed, Shenhua Baotou polyolefin production capacity will increase to 1.
3 million tons/year
.

2.
Recently, the Jiangsu Provincial Leading Group for the Improvement of Chemical Industry Safety and Environmental Protection Improvement issued a notice
on the target tasks of the province's chemical industry safety and environmental protection improvement in 2019.
It was mentioned that a total of 4,022 chemical production enterprises included in the scope of rectification were identified in the province, 1,431 were planned to be closed and withdrawn, 267 were suspended for rectification, 1,302 were rectified within a time limit, 77 were relocated and 945 were relocated
.
In 2019, the province plans to close and withdraw 579 chemical parks (concentration areas), and plans to close or cancel 9 chemical parks (concentration areas
).

Spot market: domestic polyethylene market price adjustment
.
In terms of petrochemicals, the opening price of the sales company was not adjusted much, and some prices were lowered at the beginning of next month, with a range of about 100 yuan / ton
.
Spot merchants ship more to complete sales tasks, shipment enthusiasm is not high, market transaction atmosphere is general, real order negotiation is the mainstay
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 2326 lots, -60 lots; In the historical median zone
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 199396 lots, -2745 lots, short positions are 217832 lots, -2247 lots, net positions are -18436 lots, net space increases
.

Summary: Crude oil trend is weak, naphtha prices also continue to decline, cost support weakened
.
Downstream agricultural film orders accumulated, and construction starts increased; However, affected by the holiday in the later stage, some agricultural film enterprises stopped work and limited production, raw material inventory accumulated, merchants' enthusiasm for replenishment weakened, and demand remained to be seen
.
Affected by the poor enthusiasm of the downstream, merchants' shipments are not smooth, and the PE inventory of two barrels of oil is relatively stable, but due to the impact of the long holiday accumulation, it is expected that the inventory will be significantly higher
after the holiday.
The spot market is still light, and merchants mainly
let profits take goods.
Pre-holiday prices are expected to maintain a weak finishing of volatility, focusing on support around 7400 below and pressure
around 7600 above.
In terms of operation, the long holiday is imminent, and it is recommended that investors take short positions for the holiday
.