LLDPE futures price volatility decline, maintaining a weak trend in the short term

Market situation: L2001 main contract fluctuated and fell, and the futures price closed at 7430 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day; Volume 407204 lots, -1852 lots; Position 688406 lots, +35910 lots, basis 40 yuan, 9-1 spread -30 yuan
.

News: Longzhong Information reported on August 16 that Sinopec's 300,000 tons/year LLDPE plant was converted to 35K; 300,000 tons/year HDPE plant output 049
.
Shenhua Xinjiang PE plant production capacity is 270,000 tons/year, stopped on August 15, qualified products were released on September 22, and stopped and overhauled for a total of 38 days
.

Upstream raw materials market: Naphtha prices fell, and the market price in Japan was $464.
38/ton, -2.
16%.

The price of ethylene in Asia remained stable, with the price in Northeast Asia being $960/mt and Southeast Asia being $860/mt
.

Spot market: LLDPE spot prices continued to decline
.
North China dropped 20-50 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7470 yuan / ton, -30
.
The mainstream quotation in East China is 7550 yuan / ton
.
South China dropped 50-100 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7600 yuan / ton, -50
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 2066 lots, +0 lots within the day; In the historical median zone
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 195601 lots, +9294 lots, short positions are 241224 lots, +12886 lots, and the net position is -45623 lots, and the net short is increased
.

Summary: The PE inventory of polyethylene enterprises has fallen slightly, the impact of domestic PE equipment maintenance has increased, and next week Shenhua Xinjiang and other equipment shutdown maintenance, it is expected that the maintenance impact will still increase, and the pressure on the supply side may be eased
to a certain extent.
However, in terms of downstream demand, agricultural film demand growth is slow, construction starts are still at a low level, and Shandong is affected by the typhoon, some factories have stopped work, resulting in a slight decline in the operating rate of agricultural film this week, suppressing
prices.
L2001 contract volatility lower, daily moving average system downward, is expected to maintain weak volatility in the short term, the market has the requirement to test the 7380 line of support, it is recommended to hold short orders
cautiously.