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Since June, the domestic liquid ammonia market has changed from the strong trend in the previous period and has begun to fall under pressure
.
Market monitoring data shows that in early June, the average market price of liquid ammonia was 5,275 yuan (ton price, the same below), and by mid-June, it had fallen below the 5,000-yuan mark and dropped to 4,973 yuan
.
Industry analysts believe that there are three main reasons for the sharp drop in the price of liquid ammonia.
First, the increase in liquid ammonia was too large in the early stage
.
In May, the liquid ammonia market rose strongly, and the factory quotations of enterprises were basically above 5,000 yuan, and the highest price exceeded 6,000 yuan, and new highs were constantly refreshed
.
As the liquid ammonia market rose too much and too quickly in the early stage, there was a rational demand for correction
.
Second, it was affected by the fall in the price of urea from a high level
.
Liquid ammonia and urea are in the same industry chain, and the price of urea has fallen rapidly, which has also had a significant impact on the liquid ammonia market
.
Affected by various factors such as increasing supply, weakening demand, and falling international urea, the price of urea began to decline significantly from June 13.
In just a few days, the price of mainstream regional prices fell by more than 100 yuan, and the highest was more than 150 yuan
.
The weak market of urea also affects the liquid ammonia market
.
Third, the contradiction between supply and demand of liquid ammonia has increased
.
According to Jinlianchuang, at present, the coking plant in Yizhou, Jiangsu has been in low-load production, the production of Xinlianxin in Henan has been adjusted for a temporary increase, the Shandong Lunan Yanzhou Mine will be released in the near future, and the synthetic ammonia plant of Daqing Petrochemical in Northeast China has started to produce products smoothly.
Sinochem The new production capacity in Fuling began to be released
.
It is expected that the short-term liquid ammonia market supply will continue to show a steady and increasing trend
.
However, the offer prices of downstream caprolactam and acrylonitrile continued to fall, and the trading atmosphere in the market was sluggish, mainly to maintain low levels
.
The contradiction between supply and demand in the liquid ammonia market has increased
.
Looking at the market outlook, downstream demand is relatively light, dealers follow the decline, and the liquid ammonia market is obviously oversupplied, and the pressure on corporate inventory is increasing.
It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will still have room for decline in the near future
.