Liquid ammonia market continues to weaken

　　Since the liquid ammonia market peaked in mid-May, it began to fluctuate and fell, and it fell sharply in July
.
Market monitoring data shows that at the end of July, the price of liquid ammonia had dropped to 3,740 yuan (ton price, the same below), a monthly drop of more than 1,000 yuan, a drop of 21.
9%
.
Compared with this year's highest price of 5333 yuan, the decline is even more than 30%
.

　　According to industry insiders, there are four main reasons for the sharp drop in the price of liquid ammonia:

　　First, the previous increase was too large
.
In the first half of this year, there was a surge in the price of liquid ammonia, and it reached the highest point in early and mid-May.
At that time, the ex-factory quotation of liquid ammonia was generally more than 5,000 yuan, and individual enterprises exceeded 6,000 yuan, which was a rare high price
.
Excessive surge has also overdrawn the market, and there is a rational return to demand
.

　　The second is affected by the sharp drop in the price of urea
.
After July, due to the weakening of demand, the urea market fell sharply after changing its previous strength.
In just over 10 days, the price fell by more than 500 yuan
.
This is the fastest period of decline this year
.
There is a strong correlation between urea and the liquid ammonia market, and the price of urea has plummeted, resulting in a rapid decline in the liquid ammonia market
.

　　Third, the contradiction between market supply and demand has increased
.
After the price of urea plummeted, some manufacturers adjusted their production mode to reduce urea production and sell more liquid ammonia
.
In this way, the supply of liquid ammonia market has been increased invisibly, and with the resumption of production of nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers in the early stage, the supply of liquid ammonia market has further increased
.
Affected by the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, the downstream intention to receive goods is poor, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has increased, and the price of liquid ammonia has been forced to continue to decrease
.

　　Fourth, the import of liquid ammonia resumed growth
.
In the first five months of this year, as the international liquid ammonia price rose sharply higher than the domestic price, the import of liquid ammonia in China was obviously hindered, and the import volume in May fell below the 10,000-ton mark
.
However, after June, as the international liquid ammonia price fell, China's liquid ammonia imports resumed growth
.
According to customs data, China's liquid ammonia imports reached 45,000 tons in June, a year-on-year increase of 64% and a month-on-month increase of 360%
.
The increase in the import of liquid ammonia has increased the domestic supply and put pressure on the domestic market
.

　　Regarding the market outlook for liquid ammonia, Jinlianchuang analyzed that, on the whole, as the mainstream price of ammonia companies in the main producing areas drops below the cost line and the low-priced supply of incremental ammonia companies in the early stage decreases, the willingness to continue to lower the quotation is weakened
.
However, the overall downstream demand industry is weak, and the ammonia market is under pressure
.
At present, the game between upstream and downstream will affect the next trend of liquid ammonia.
There is still an expectation of incremental growth in the short term, and the future trend of the liquid ammonia market is still not optimistic
.