Liansu's short-term gains have been large or there is a risk of a technical pullback

News: The PE inventory of domestic polyethylene enterprises (oil + coal) declined this cycle, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.
4%.

In terms of varieties, LDPE inventory decreased by 16.
4% week-on-week; HDPE inventory decreased by 2.
56% week-on-week; LLDPE inventories decreased 1.
58%
week-on-week.
Among them, the total inventory of PE of two barrels of oil continued to decline, falling by 6.
66%
from last week.
Among them, Sinopec's PE inventory decreased by 15.
07% from last week; CNPC PE inventories fell 2.
35%
from last week.
PE inventories of coal-based enterprises fell in a narrow range, falling by 1.
76%
week-on-week.
The sample traders' PE inventories decreased by 6.
89%
week-on-week.

In November, the overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises was -3.
8%
month-on-month.
Among them, the monthly operating rate of shed film was -7.
3%
month-on-month.
The monthly operating rate of mulch film was +2.
9%
month-on-month.
This month, the demand for shed film in the northern region gradually weakened, and the start of small and medium-sized enterprises declined
.
Southern orders of some large enterprises continued to follow, and the start of construction did not change much
.
At the same time, affected by the environmental protection orange warning and production stoppage, the start of some enterprises in North China was slightly affected
.
In terms of mulch film, some bidding orders of some large enterprises were implemented, and the start of construction increased
.
The follow-up of orders in the mulch film market is scarce, and in the sporadic production of individual enterprises, most other mulch film enterprises are mainly shut down
.

Spot market: The domestic polyethylene market is weak and volatile
.
Most of the prices of the main regional sales companies are stable, the attitude of merchants is wait-and-see, the shipment offer is slightly adjusted, the downstream takes goods on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak
.
As of the noon close, the North China and East China markets adjusted by 50 yuan / ton; The South China market is temporarily stable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 1081 lots, intraday -10 lots
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 101242 lots, -8631 lots, short positions are 133965 lots, -9039 lots, net positions are -32723 lots, and the net margin is reduced
.

Summary: The International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate in 2019 to 3%, the lowest growth rate in 10 years, and the sharp decline in crude oil hit market confidence, and the average operating rate of polyethylene enterprises last week was 89.
95%, an increase of 1.
35 percentage points week-on-week, and the total weekly output was reported at 361,000 tons, an increase of 05,400 tons
.
Market supply has increased
.
However, after entering late October, the demand for plastic agricultural film gradually rebounded, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises reported 42.
3% last week, and continued to rise slightly by 0.
1%
week-on-week.
And PE social inventories continued to fluctuate and fall, down 5.
21% week-on-week, while polyolefin inventories in major domestic ports also continued to fall, reporting 218,400 tons, down 04,000 tons from last week, and also lower than the same period last year
.
It shows that there is little supply pressure in the market, which has some support
for LLDPE.
Considering that the short-term gains have been large, it is expected that there is a risk
of a technical correction in the short term.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors reduce their holdings at high prices and drop their pockets
.