Liansu's main contract rushed high and fell back It is recommended to wait and see in the short term

News: Zhu Wenwei, chairman of the China Plastics Processing Industry Association, introduced that in recent years, the main economic indicators of China's plastics industry have continued to grow, and structural adjustment has achieved results
.
In the first nine months of this year, the cumulative output of plastic products was 59.
936 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
12%; The operating income of the enterprises above the standard reached 1,377.
6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.
28%; The profit was 70.
4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.
35%.

Plastic-related indicators continue to rise, indicating that the downstream rigid demand for plastics in China is still there
.

Li Dapeng, president of the Shaanxi Plastics Industry Association, said that the current annual production capacity of polyolefins in Shaanxi has reached 4.
1 million tons, ranking first in the country, and the output of general plastic raw materials ranks first
in the country.
In the future, Shaanxi will still steadily develop the upstream and downstream industries of plastics, and it is expected that by 2025, the annual production capacity of upstream products of the plastic industry chain such as Shaanxi coal-to-olefins, aromatics, ethylene glycol, and PVC will exceed 15 million tons, of which the polyolefin industry will reach a product scale of 10 million tons and an industrial scale of 100 billion yuan, providing sufficient raw material guarantee
for downstream extended deep processing.

The PE inventory of domestic polyethylene enterprises (oil + coal) decreased in a narrow range, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.
09%.

In terms of varieties, LDPE inventory decreased by 5.
28% week-on-week; HDPE inventory decreased by 1.
75% week-on-week; LLDPE inventories decreased by 7.
58%
week-on-week.
Among them, the total inventory of PE of two barrels of oil declined, down 5.
44%
from last week.
Among them, Sinopec's PE inventory decreased by 14.
04% from last week; CNPC PE inventories rose 0.
68%
from last week.
PE inventories of coal-based enterprises edged higher, up 0.
11%
week-on-week.
Traders' PE inventories rose by 3.
37%
week-on-week.

Environmental protection production restrictions in North China have struck again, and the start of agricultural film enterprises this cycle has taken the lead in rising and then suppressing, up to now, the comprehensive operating rate of agricultural film enterprises is 43.
17%, down 1.
81 percentage points
from last Wednesday.

Spot market: the domestic polyethylene market price is higher
.
The prices of the main regional sales companies are basically stable, the merchants are more active and overreport, only the focus of individual loose resources is loose, and the downstream temporarily maintains on-demand orders, and the market increase needs to be digested
.
By noon, the North China market was 50-100 yuan / ton higher; East China market adjustment of 50 yuan / ton; The South China market is temporarily stable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipt reported 1161 lots, intraday +0 lots; It is in the low-to-middle historical zone
.
Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 134956 lots, -14404 lots, short positions are 160198 lots, -5120 lots, net positions are -25242 lots, net short increases
.

Summary: China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and after entering late October, the demand for plastic home film is expected to gradually recover, and PE inventories are still in a low area, indicating that the market supply pressure is not large, which has some support for LLDPE, however, the International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate in 2019 to 3%, the growth rate was the lowest in 10 years, hit market confidence, and international crude oil fell, and the second round of environmental protection inspections began, the operating rate of agricultural film enterprises fell slightly, and enterprises were cautious in purchasing.
These factors are expected to suppress
LLDPE.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors wait and see in the short term
.