Liansu high open low is expected to have room for improvement in the short term

News: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2019, China processed 54 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 6.
9% year-on-year and 2.
9% month-on-month; From January to August, processed crude oil was 424.
16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.
9%.

Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 1.
2%.

ethylene 1.
65 million tons, an increase of 1.
8%; From January to August, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.
6%
year-on-year.

From January to July 2019, the cumulative output of primary form plastics in industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 54.
508 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.
5%; Among them, the output in July was 7.
793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.
2%.

The top five are Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Guangdong, with a total output of 25.
6436 million tons, accounting for 47% of
the country's total output.

Spot market: Most of the domestic polyethylene market prices have fallen, and only some of the tight resources still have a slight increase
.
In terms of petrochemicals, the current inventory of enterprises is low, and the opening price of the main regional sales companies is mixed, with a range of 100 yuan / ton
.
Linear futures fell back, the spot market transaction was light, most merchants held inventory, most of the offers moved down under the fear of falling mentality, and the actual order negotiated the transaction
.
As of the noon close, the North China market fell linearly by 100-200 yuan / ton; East China market adjustment 50-200 yuan / ton; The South China market fell linearly by about
100 yuan / ton.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipt reported 3882 lots, -172 lots; It is in the all-time high zone
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 219138 lots, -14429 lots, short positions are 212845 lots, -27891 lots, net positions are 6293 lots, net short to net long
.

Summary: The National Day holiday is approaching, and downstream enterprises have a certain demand for stocking, which has led to an improvement in market expectations
.
Port inventories continued to fall, down 79,700 tons year-on-year, indicating that overseas goods had little impact on the domestic market, and the PE inventory of two barrels of oil continued to decrease significantly, and the decline was large, reaching 10.
98%, indicating that the speed of destocking was acceptable
.
However, the Saudi oil field attack that promoted this round of market has turned around, and Saudi Energy Minister Abdel-Aziz bin Salman announced to the outside world on the evening of the 17th local time that Saudi oil supply has returned to the level
before the attack on oil facilities.
This led to a heavy decline
in international crude oil.
And although the downstream demand for plastics is expected to improve, there are signs of tightening environmental protection before the holiday, and some places even have measures to stop production and work, which is expected to inhibit the enthusiasm
of downstream enterprises to prepare materials to a certain extent.
And the petrochemical and other equipment for later maintenance has been started up one after another, which has also increased the supply
of the market to a certain extent.
Therefore, although there is expected to be room for upside in the short term, the momentum for a sharp upward trend in medium-term prices is still lacking.

Operationally, investors are advised to sell short
on the rebound.