Lackluster fundamentals may limit the overall improvement in rubber prices

On the supply side, the release of glue in the main producing areas of Hainan is limited due to rainfall and cooling, and the enthusiasm of processing plants to increase prices to rush to buy raw materials has decreased
.
The average purchase price of concentrated latex in Hainan production area is lower
.
As of December 08, the purchase price of thick latex was 11,100 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton
week-on-week.
The Xishuangbanna production area in Yunnan is basically in a state of complete suspension
.
There is still more rain in southern Thailand this week, and the output of glue has been affected to a certain extent, and the impact on the price of glue is small
.

The average purchase price of raw materials in Thailand rose during the week, and the release of raw materials was hindered due to rainfall in southern Thailand during the week, and the average weekly price of glue was 44.
28 baht/kg, up 0.
41%
from last week.
In the first 10 months of 2022, Indonesia's exports of natural rubber (12,970, -210.
00, -1.
59%) (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.
778 million tons, down 8.
3%
year-on-year.
Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.
733 million tons, down 8.
2% year-on-year; The export of tobacco flake gum was 40,000 tons, down 13% year-on-year; Latex exports were 03,000 tons, an increase of 23%
year-on-year.
From January to October, the total export of natural rubber to China was 127,000 tons, down 9.
3% year-on-year; The total export of mixed rubber to China was 17,000 tons, down 16%
year-on-year.
In November 2022, China's imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 73.
8 tons, up 44.
14%
year-on-year.

On the demand side, the tire operating rate rose to a better level during the year, but due to the decline in terminal automobile production and sales and the impact of high tire inventory, coupled with the poor performance of corporate orders, the tire operating rate was under great pressure, and it was difficult to recover to the level of the same period of previous years
.
The macro atmosphere inside and outside the week improved, driving the market to heat up expectations for a good demand side
.

In terms of inventory, Tianjiao and downstream tires are in the accumulation stage, and the inventory days of all-steel and semi-steel tires have reached a new high
.
As of the week of December 2, the inventory of 17 samples in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone of natural rubber was 111,400 tons, a slight decrease of 0.
05 million tons, or 0.
45%,
from the previous period.
The inventory of 16 samples of the natural rubber general trading warehouse in Qingdao was 412,900 tons, an increase of 02,000 tons, or 0.
49%,
over the previous period.
The total inventory was 524,300 tons, an increase of 01,500 tons
over the previous period.
As of 12-09, the warehouse order of Tianjiao was 135,980 tons, an increase of 10,760 tons
week-on-week.
The total inventory of the exchange was 155,285 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons
week-on-week.
As of 12-09, the No.
20 rubber warehouse order was 31,339 tons, an increase of 2,621 tons
week-on-week.
The total stock of the exchange was 34,314 tons, down 1,209 tons
week-on-week.
China's social stock of natural rubber was 1.
0183 million tons, an increase of 18,200 tons, or 1.
82%,
over the previous period.
It decreased by 64,000 tons, or 5.
93%,
year-on-year.

Due to the lackluster fundamentals of rubber itself, with the recent slight improvement of domestic logistics, the replacement market demand may rebound, but the downstream is currently in the off-season, and the overall improvement may be limited
.
The supply side continues the situation of domestic increase and limited overseas continued supply recovery, and the current raw material price level and weather are basically in a normal state, rubber tapping is normal, and last week due to the impact of rainfall in Thailand, raw materials picked up slightly, and the recovery of cup rubber prices is more driven by the rise in finished product prices, resulting in the price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber further falling
.