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On Monday, the main force of Shanghai aluminum closed at 18575 yuan / ton, up 0.
22%.
Looking forward to the future market, it is expected that before the current situation of weak supply and demand and low inventory changes, aluminum prices will continue to remain volatile, and the range fluctuations may be greatly affected by macro factors, and if the inventory inflection point is established, it is possible to open a new round of decline
.
Overseas, on Friday, the "New Federal Reserve News Agency" released news that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 75BP in November, suggesting that the rate hike will be reduced in December, which has eased market sentiment, but from the Fed's overall statement, the determination to fight inflation is still firm, and if it slows down the interest rate hike in December, it will also consider raising interest rates to the target level or even higher
through a series of measures in 23 years.
The Fed's tone of slowing inflation has not changed, and colored macros continue to come under pressure
.
Germany announced that it will invest a total of 200 billion euros to cope with rising energy prices, which to some extent alleviates the economic impact caused by energy shortages, but cannot solve the underlying problems, and the downward pressure on the economy is still strong
.
Domestically, alumina in Shaanxi and other places has significantly reduced and stopped production due to ore and other problems, and the capacity utilization rate has only reached 66%, and alumina production capacity has been limited
to a certain extent.
Yunnan limited production, Sichuan resumed production slowed down, it is expected that bauxite imports will fall from a high level, and the domestic supply side is supported, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the LME and the United States impose sanctions on Rusal; The demand side mainly focuses on the back-end consumption of real estate, which has not yet picked up
.
At present, the supply and demand of the domestic aluminum market are affected by the epidemic, and the shipment is blocked, resulting in a decrease in arrivals, and the production of downstream processing plants in severely affected areas has been disrupted
.
Support for prices from low inventories remains, but upside drivers
are lacking.
Short-term Shanghai aluminum maintains a volatile trend, and it is recommended to operate in
ranges.
