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Market review, affected by US sanctions, Rusal's aluminum production in 2018 may be reduced by 30% under the baseline scenario, and may be reduced by 50% to 70%
under the negative scenario.
The large reduction in aluminum production provided upward support for aluminum prices, and the price of aluminum was shocked and rose
.
This week, the price of London aluminum maintained a volatile upward trend
.
The market mainly focuses on the $2400 support level
.
US ADP employment rose by 178,000 in May versus an expected increase of 190,000
.
Lower-than-expected ADP payrolls in the United States in May weighed on investor confidence; Coupled with the continuous decline in crude oil prices inhibiting investors' enthusiasm to enter the market, the lack of support for the upward trend of aluminum prices was weak, and Shanghai aluminum prices were frustrated downward
.
In terms of news, the sixth working meeting of the Yangtze River Delta Regional Air Pollution Prevention and Control Collaborative Group and the third working meeting of the Yangtze River Delta Regional Water Pollution Prevention and Control Collaborative Group were held in Shanghai on June 2, and environmental protection policies are expected to heat up
.
Industry News:
1.
In April 2018, the output of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1.
1%, down 6.
5 percentage points
.
From January to April, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 10.
89 million tons, an increase of 0.
2%, down 9.
9 percentage points
.
2.
In April 2018, the output of electrolytic aluminum in the United States was 68,000 tons, an increase of 13.
3% year-on-year; From January to April, the output of electrolytic aluminum in the United States was 265968 tons, an increase of 10%
year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, the recent trend of Lun aluminum inventory generally maintained a downward trend, the latest inventory reported 1206375 metric tons, a total of 16,475 metric tons of inventory reduction, a decrease of about 1.
3%; The total aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 972707 tons, down 1,005 tons, or about 0.
1%,
from last week.
From a fundamental point of view, the recent domestic inventory continued to decline, in addition, self-provided power rectification continued to promote the support of aluminum futures prices, but the bearish point mainly from the market's concerns about the decline in alumina prices in the later period and the weakening of the consumer side, technical, short-term aluminum futures prices around 14500 yuan / ton are supported, temporarily maintaining a volatile view
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1807 contract can consider the range of 14500-15000 yuan / ton oscillation operation, within 5% of the position, and set a stop loss
.
