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Entering May, the domestic MDI market continued its strength in April.
With the news that Covestro’s guide price was raised again by 200 yuan (ton price, the same below) and Wanhua proposed a minimum recommended price of 12,300 yuan, the market went out again.
A wave of uptrends
.
"From the perspective of the market outlook, manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, but the demand has not started, and the MDI market has insufficient momentum to continue to rise, or has peaked and fallen in stages
.
Shipment resistance increases
Shipment resistance increasesIn April, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated widely, falling sharply in the first half of the month and rising sharply in the second half
.
In the third week of April, manufacturers began to exert their efforts.
Wanhua and Covestro successively announced the new week policy - no quotation and no delivery.
At the same time, Wanhua suggested a minimum sales price of 11,500 yuan to dealers
.
"Recently, Covestro's Shanghai factory and Wanhua have introduced maintenance plans, and the supply may continue to be tight, which will support the aggregated MDI market
.
Costs continue to soften
Costs continue to softenThe price of aniline, which is a raw material for polymerized MDI, has been continuously lowered under the pressure of increased supply, which is difficult to bring cost support to the polymerized MDI market
.
Zhang Yuanjiang, deputy general manager of Shandong Jinling Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, said that Shandong Jinling's 200,000-ton/year aniline plant is operating normally, and Huatai's 100,000-ton/year plant has recently started to ship normally, and the supply of goods in the Shandong market has increased
.
Regarding the market outlook of aniline, first of all, from the perspective of the upstream raw material pure benzene, the downstream factories actively replenished the supply around the "May Day" holiday, and the pure benzene market is showing a positive trend.
Possibly, it is difficult to support higher aniline prices on the cost side
.
In addition, under the influence of the continuous negative impact of the external market and supply and demand, it is difficult for the aniline market to turn around in the short term
.
From the perspective of profit, the current profit of aniline enterprises per ton of product is 600~700 yuan, and the crude oil market is still operating at a low level
.
Demand is hard to pick up
Demand is hard to pick upPolymeric MDI is mainly used to produce rigid polyurethane foam, semi-rigid foam, etc.
, and is widely used in refrigerators, thermal insulation materials, automobiles and construction industries
.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the economic situation at home and abroad is not optimistic, and the manufacturing industry is relatively sluggish than before.
Although the resumption of work and production is in progress, and the government has successively issued supporting policies, it is difficult for the demand to recover in the short term.
Insufficient power
.
According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in March, the domestic automobile production and sales volume reached 1.
422 million and 1.
43 million respectively, a month-on-month increase of 399.
2% and 361.
4%, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 44.
5% and 43.
3%, a decrease of 35.
3% compared with February.
% and 35.
8%
.
From the perspective of the refrigerator industry, in the first quarter, the national output of household refrigerators was 13.
731 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.
8%
.
Among them, the output in March was 7.
266 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4%
.
According to industry insiders, it is not difficult to see from the sluggish demand of the above-mentioned two kinds of polymerized MDI terminal markets that it is difficult to increase the procurement of raw material polymerized MDI significantly
.
At the same time, the spread of overseas epidemics has a significant impact on the export of domestic chemicals and end products
.
Although the aggregated MDI volume in March increased significantly compared with the previous import volume, considering the lag of exports affected by the epidemic, the decrease in aggregated MDI export volume in the second quarter may be more obvious, which will further put pressure on the domestic market
.
