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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1706 fluctuated in a narrow range around 46100 yuan / ton, closing at 46110 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up slightly by 0.
15% on a daily basis, and the operating range was 46520-45800 yuan / ton
.
However, at present, Shanghai copper is still running below the moving average group, indicating that short-term downside risks remain.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near-low, far-high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1705 contract and the 1706 contract narrowed to 60 yuan / ton
.
External: The LME market is closed today and next Monday
.
As of April 13, London copper closed at 5682 US dollars / ton, but at present, London copper is still running below the main moving average group, but has not effectively broken through the recent oscillation finishing platform, and its lower edge is 5652 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of positions, on April 11, the position of London copper was 342,000 lots, an increase of 1,468 lots per day, and in the past three weeks, Lun copper's position has increased and decreased, and long and short trading is cautious
.
Macro: The dollar index rebounded overnight, and the Asian market traded around
100.
53 today.
China's new renminbi loans in March were 1.
02 trillion yuan, below expectations of 1.
2 trillion
yuan.
Meanwhile, the M2 money supply rose 10.
6% y/y in March, below expectations of 11.
1%.
In terms of industry, according to Chile's National Copper Commission, Chile's copper production in 2017 is expected to be less than 5.
6 million tons, down 190,000 tons from the previous forecast of 5.
79 million tons, and only a slight increase of 0.
8% from 2016 (Chilean copper production in 2016 fell 3.
8% year-on-year), mainly affected by the strike at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine, which was shut down for 43 days
in the first quarter of this year.
Spot: On April 14, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at 10-70 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 45740-45940 yuan / ton
.
The current month contract is close to the last trading day, some sources of the market appeared to the next month quotation discount of 100 yuan - discount 50 yuan / ton, the next month basis maintained above 100 yuan / ton, now copper to the month premium following the basis was slightly pushed, the morning market some speculators into the market to absorb low-priced sources, in the near noon after the rise of the market profit shipment, downstream demand on the basis of low level slightly increased, market trading enthusiasm slightly improved
compared with yesterday.
The intraday Shanghai copper 1706 contract oscillated above 46,000 yuan, and due to the lack of external guidance, intraday long-short trading was light
.
At present, Shanghai copper has not completely broken through the recent oscillation finishing platform, and short-term operations still need to be cautious
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1706 contract hold a biased oscillation idea, which can be sold high and low in the range of 45800-47300 yuan, and the stop loss is 400 yuan / ton
each.
