June 9 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

On the supply side, following the production reduction in Inner Mongolia due to the carbon neutrality policy in the first quarter, there were production restrictions in Yunnan this month due to insufficient electricity, and the overall supply-side release is still relatively limited
.
On the demand side, the current demand side continues to improve, and the accelerated issuance of new local special bonds in the second quarter may drive infrastructure investment, and the real estate industry is in the completion cycle, driving the profile market
.
Follow-up continues to pay attention to the impact of industrial power rationing and high temperature weather on aluminum downstream processing enterprises
.
In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline in May, although the pressure on the policy increased, but the supply disruption continued, demand remained strong, and aluminum prices were still supported
.

From the current situation, the aluminum market has been in a relative supply and demand balance, the main factors that dominate the price fluctuation are still macro and domestic policy factors; In the short term, due to the favorable domestic data and low inventories to support prices, the downward trend of aluminum prices has eased, but in the medium and long term, it is still necessary to focus on the fiscal policy guidance of central banks led by the Federal Reserve and further domestic regulatory measures; Shanghai aluminum main force below the temporary attention to 18,000 supports; operationally on demand replenishment can be, middlemen maintain fast forward and fast out; it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum will continue to fluctuate, and the overall fluctuation space is not large
.