June 30 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

From a fundamental point of view, the "ceiling" limit of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the pressure of the dual carbon policy, but the end of power curtailment in Yunnan has reduced the pressure on the supply side of aluminum; The performance of downstream demand is average, but the demand for new energy is growing rapidly, short-term demand disturbances exist, and long-term improvement is good.
On the inventory side, LME aluminum has been greatly destocked, Shanghai aluminum inventory has remained stable, short-term policy and fundamental long and short factors are mixed, and in the long run, aluminum fundamentals are well supported
.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks stood at 1,577,200 mt as of June 29, down 0.
9 million mt
from the previous session.
As of June 28, the social inventory of aluminum ingots fell by 19,000 tons from last week to 864,000 tons
.

Recently, the US infrastructure plan and Russia's imposition of aluminum export tariffs and other news to boost Lun aluminum continues to rise, driven by it, although the domestic fundamentals have a trend of continuous weakening, but Shanghai aluminum is still strong, high, the main force is still in the lower high level of volatility, in the short term, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum has a slight rebound possibility, but the upper space is still limited, continue to pay attention to the 19000 mark break, in the medium and long term, Wanjiu support is poor, or difficult to stand, there is still a possibility of falling; Operationally, it is recommended that the downstream bargain just needs to be replenished, and it is expected that the spot aluminum will continue to fluctuate
tomorrow.