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After the sharp decline in overnight trading in Shanghai aluminum that month, the center of gravity of the afternoon trading rose upward, but the overall center of gravity still fell more than 2% from yesterday to around 19100 yuan / ton, East China spot trading concentrated 19100-19120 yuan / ton, the opposite plate premium 10-30 yuan / ton, after the absolute price fell sharply, the holder of the price of the main
shipment.
The National Reserve announced the release of the first batch of national reserves at the end of June, and the public auction will be held from July 5 to 6, and the sale will be to downstream enterprises in the form of public bidding and continue until the end of
December.
The national reserve of aluminum reserves is between 800,000-900,000 tons, the previously expected dumping scale is 200,000-600,000 tons of water level, the monthly dumping reserve fluctuates at 3-100,000 tons, and the aluminum first determined to dump 50,000 tons, an annualized supply of 2%, did not exceed expectations and was relatively low
.
The supply-side disturbances in June included power cuts in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangdong and Guizhou and other places, which reduced production by about 50,000 tons, and the dumping of reserves at the end of June was actually under pressure on production before neutralization
.
The current electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues the rhythm of destocking, this week's inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, the overall water level of 874,000 tons, it is expected that the destocking speed will further slow down
after the release of reserves.
In the past, prices will rebound to a certain extent in the period after the end of the dump, especially when
the selling volume does not meet market expectations.
The current market that sells less than expected reflects the rapid rebound of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals at the end of the peak season still have some support, and it is expected to show a strong trend of volatility in the short term
.
However, at the same time, if the National Reserve responds to the previous National Development and Reform Commission's monitoring of commodity prices, and carries out targeted work to ensure supply and price stability, according to the overall reaction of the reserve market and price changes, it is not ruled out that the State Reserve Bureau will dynamically increase the scale of storage in the future, and with the peak season turning weaker, aluminum prices will face strong upward pressure
.
