June 3 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

At present, the aluminum supply side is affected by the upgrade of Yunnan's power limit and the marginal growth rate is tightened, Yunaluminum and Shenhuo currently have a certain degree of slots, and at the same time, the production time of the three sections of Asia and Shenhuo may be delayed
.
On the consumer side, the start of construction is stable, the main driving force is the consumption increment provided by the construction industry, but Guangdong's increasingly serious power cuts have a certain interference with short-term consumption, because Guangdong's foreign electricity accounts for more than 30%, and Yunnan hydropower is a major force, so the arrival time of Yunnan's local flood season also has a greater impact
on it.
The power rationing in Guangdong has suppressed short-term consumption to a certain extent, and the performance of aluminum prices may be biased, paying attention to the subsequent alternation of Yunnan's abundant and dry periods and subsequent changes in the social treasury
.

Recently, the south has not lifted the power supply tension, Guangdong power rationing policy is still in place, aluminum enterprise operating rate further declined, in addition, in terms of policy, the market still has some concerns about the national price control measures, although the macro is still good, but the price rebound is still relatively weak, short-term aluminum prices or continue to fluctuate running, or there is a moderate pullback possible, the main focus on 1.
83-18,700 range oscillation, the operation can wait and see, waiting for the pullback to buy opportunities; it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum will fall
.