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Aluminum market morning comment: oil prices continued to rise for five weeks to set the longest consecutive rise record, the next week Lun aluminum closed up $55; The national reserve sold reserves lower than expected, the short-term market gap is still there, the destocking of aluminum ingot social stocks continues, and aluminum is expected to rise
today.
On Friday, Lun aluminum rose sharply to close Changyang, opening slightly lower at $
2492 today.
Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher in the night session, oscillating to close the doji, closing at 19005
.
Shanghai aluminum trading is stable, positions are rising, and market sentiment is optimistic
.
The trend of aluminum prices is significantly stronger than that of copper prices, and demand is better, taking the lead in stabilizing and rebounding
.
Support around 18,000 below Shanghai aluminum is strong, and it is expected to rise again in the medium term
.
Upper pressure 19500, lower support 18500
.
On the macro front, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates earlier, but the Fed dumped reserves less than expected, Biden proposed a new infrastructure plan, and the market sentiment was good
.
From a fundamental point of view, the "ceiling" limit of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the pressure of the dual carbon policy, but the power shortage has eased, and the pressure on the supply side of aluminum has been reduced; The performance of downstream demand is average, but the demand for new energy is growing rapidly, and short-term disturbances in demand exist, and long-term improvement is good
.
From the inventory side, LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum stocks are obviously destocked, short-term policy and fundamental long and short factors are mixed, and in the long run, aluminum fundamentals are well supported
.
