June 27 aluminum market afternoon review

Europe and the United States continue to sanction Russia, and crude oil rose sharply
on Friday.
Lun aluminum fluctuated sharply to close in the negative, opening slightly higher at $
2452 today.
Shanghai aluminum bottomed out and turned up, closing at 19060
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are rising, and market sentiment has improved
.
The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is high, the domestic consumption side is better, and inventories continue to decline
.
Shanghai aluminum Lun aluminum below the support is reflected, Shanghai aluminum trend is significantly stronger than Lun aluminum, Shanghai aluminum may continue to rebound
after shock.
Upper pressure 22000, lower support 19000
.

Over the past week, aluminum prices have effectively fallen below their pre-May lows and quickly fallen to near the November low, which is also the full cost line
of the current 85% capacity quantile.
If the pre-November low is broken again, the space below will open
up even more.
Short-term macro sentiment and micro destocking form a divergence, whether macro sentiment this round is excessive, resulting in a price decline too fast and too early, does not rule out this possibility, but the adjustment of macro sentiment can only follow
.
In terms of the trend in the second half of the year, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are weak, and the price is constantly seeking a lower cost line to drive, and the possibility
of retesting cash cost support is not excluded.