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Overnight, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2208 closed at 19425, down 205, and LME aluminum closed at 2539, up 9; On the macro front, Goldman Sachs lowered its economic growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2022 and increased the probability of a recession in the United States in the past two years; The Federation of German Industries lowered Germany's economic growth forecast for 2022 by 2 percentage points to around 1.
5%; Fed's Powell Senate hearing reiterated its firm interest rate hike to control inflation
.
The landing of overseas interest rate hikes has eased the market's overly tense expectations in a timely manner, and the downstream operating rate has steadily increased
as the epidemic is gradually controlled in China.
As the panic impact of repeated pledge of warehouse receipts is still fermenting, under the leadership of trust crisis and risk aversion, some social library inventory has been transferred to private warehouses, and hidden inventory factors have led to the current strength of aluminum ingot destocking, but the actual demand has not shown significant signs of improvement
.
The peak of demand has not yet arrived, and the pressure between weak reality and strong expectations still needs time to be gradually buffered
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate around 20,000, paying attention to the continued impact of warehousing and spot inventory
.
The Fed reiterated its interest rate hike to control inflation, the market is worried that aggressive interest rate hikes will trigger a sharp economic slowdown or recession, commodity demand is suppressed, and systemic risks remain; Domestic fundamentals are generally stable, inventories continue to deteriorate, but market demand is relatively poor, market confidence is weak, production capacity continues to recover, and expectations are weak
.
It is expected that short-term market confidence will remain weak, and it is recommended to take short
positions on the high.
