June 21 Shanghai aluminum morning review

On the news front, risk aversion has been released, but the dark cloud of the trade war has not cleared, the market remains vigilant, and base metals are under pressure
.
Coupled with the weak fundamentals of primary aluminum, one is estimated according to the WBMS data release, the global primary aluminum supply shortage in 2018 is about 273,000 tons, and the gap is significantly narrower than in 2017; second, the domestic price of alumina and auxiliary materials is in a downward trend, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum is loose obviously; third, the trade friction between China and the United States and the demand off-season are coming, and downstream demand is gradually weakening, which is not conducive to the consumption
of primary aluminum inventory.
It is expected that aluminum prices still have room
to move down.

In terms of the market, the willingness of holders to ship remains stable, local middlemen believe that the current price is a short-term low, so the bottom-hunting sentiment is high, the willingness to receive goods is positive, at the same time, the local downstream post-holiday replenishment demand objectively exists, the willingness to purchase at the dip is also strong, and the overall transaction of the Guangdong market is acceptable, which is significantly better than that of
East China.
On the whole, inventories continued to decline, but downstream demand gradually picked up, but macro waves again
.
It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate within the day, with a range of 13900-14300
.
FYI
.