June 17 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

At present, there are many uncertainties in the market, downstream transactions are blocked, most of the wait-and-see situation is reviving, and processing fees have performed well under the effect of little price fluctuation, and are expected to remain firm
in the short term.
There is no significant change in macro and fundamentals, but macro pressure tends to weaken, and fundamentals are still strong
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will still maintain a volatile trend in the future, and the recent rainfall in Yunnan has rebounded, effectively alleviating the shortage of water and electric energy and the load of thermal power, and then pay attention to the specific time point
of the impact of Yunnan's production restrictions.

On the macro front, yesterday the Fed announced that it would keep the current QE scale unchanged, but increase the excess reserve ratio and the overnight reverse repo rate; At present, the market is focused on the Fed's attitude, and there is news that interest rates may be raised twice until 2023; In the short term, the continuation of the easing policy undoubtedly plays a certain supporting role in the price of aluminum, but from a domestic perspective, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a statement again today that it will continue to pay attention to the soaring commodity market and promote prices to return to a reasonable range.
The main focus is on the fluctuation of 1.
85-18,800 ranges, in the medium and long term, under the weakening of the fundamentals, the price still has a downward possibility, the lower support is 18,000; the upstream and downstream of the operation need a small amount of replenishment, merchants take profit at a high price; it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum shock is stable
.