June 1 aluminum market noon comment

The market
is closed overnight.
Shanghai aluminum opened low and closed high in the night, closing at 18685
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are declining, and market sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see
.
Short-term Shanghai aluminum stabilized and fluctuated, medium-term aluminum inventories continued to decline, Lun aluminum trend is strong, aluminum prices may continue to run
high.
Upper pressure at 20,000, lower support 60-day moving average at 18,500
.

Fundamentally, on the one hand, due to the upgrade of power cuts in Yunnan, the power load of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant has been reduced by more than 30%, which is expected to last until mid-June, and the production reduction or impact on the output is between 100,000 and 190,000 tons, and the suspended production capacity will be restored in July at the earliest; The consumption season at the end of May is still being fulfilled, although some enterprises of building profiles have been affected by power cuts, and the operating rate has fallen slightly, but the short-term demand for construction and photovoltaic industry profiles in the future is generally good
.

Overall, short-term supply-side disturbances superimposed on peak season blessings, and the destocking cycle is expected to be extended, giving some support
to aluminum prices.
Aluminum prices have experienced a wave of rapid rise in the early stage of the market has appeared a certain degree of correction, macro uncertain risks or and fundamental good pattern into the game, it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate, short-term recommended range operation, medium-term is still optimistic about aluminum prices
.