July 8 aluminum market noon comment

Crude oil rose sharply overnight, and Lun aluminum opened high and rose nearly 2% to close in Zhongyang, opening slightly higher at $2458 today
.
Shanghai aluminum opened high and rose to close in Zhongyang overnight, closing at 18555
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are basically stable, and market sentiment is biased towards
neutrality.
The decline in energy prices has put pressure on aluminum prices, but the domestic consumption side is better, and inventories continue to decline
.
The trend of Shanghai aluminum is stronger than that of Lun aluminum, and it may fluctuate
at a low level.
Upper pressure 20000, lower support 18000
.

Fundamentally, there is still news of production pressure due to energy problems overseas, and LME inventories continue to fall; The domestic supply side continues to resume production, the current domestic operating capacity is about 41 million tons, and it is expected that the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will continue to rise to 41.
25 million tons at the end of July.

Demand has not improved significantly, downstream starts have rebounded weakly, coupled with the repeated epidemic in East China, the spot market has maintained a discount
.
Today's aluminum ingot social inventory fell slightly from last week, the speed of destocking slowed down significantly, and the traditional off-season trend of the market began to appear
.
On the whole, overseas low inventory and cost end storage support, short-term sharp decline may have repair demand, but macro pressure and weak demand dominated by aluminum price space is limited, pay attention to actual demand order performance and inventory changes
.