July 7 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

On the consumption side, the arrival of the traditional consumption off-season has reduced the order saturation of downstream processing enterprises, thereby reducing the operating load
.
This change is more obvious in most industries
such as real estate, transportation, and durable goods.
It is expected that with the deepening of the off-season, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises will continue to weaken
.
In terms of inventory, short-term or between a small reduction and a small accumulation of stocks, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the weakening of
downstream consumption on inventory.

Recently, for the national "14th Five-Year Plan" circular economy development plan, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to achieve the goal of 1150 tons of recycled aluminum production in 2025, while China's recycled aluminum output in 2020 is about 7.
4 million tons, as far as the future market is concerned, the country will still vigorously promote the green development of the aluminum industry, and the aluminum market "can be expected in the future"; However, as far as the current market is concerned, the policy still exists in the face of commodity price control pressure, and the upward space of aluminum prices in the future market is limited overall, and in the short term, due to strong fundamental support, aluminum prices may be difficult to continue to decline, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum can continue to pay attention to the range of 1.
87-19,000, and the upper pressure level is 19,500.