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Copper market morning comment: yesterday's copper prices fell sharply, after noon to a new low of 55510 yuan / ton after rebound, night prices continued to rise, spot maintained a wait-and-see attitude, the dollar hit a new high, is still the fermentation of recession expectations to guide the price to fall
again.
At the macro level, the Fed's tightening attitude will not ease significantly, the rate hike under the established federal fund neutral target rate is still high, and Powell has a clear attitude of controlling inflation at the expense of economic growth, the current copper price has traded a 75BP rate hike in July, but the current oil price falls, July does still have the possibility of a 50BP rate hike, which may make sentiment repaired
.
In terms of supply and demand, the possibility of inventory continuing to dematerialize sharply is decreasing, but the accumulation expectation is rising, and the domestic balance is shifting from tight balance to surplus; Overseas, LME copper European inventories showed signs of delivery, the proportion of warehouse receipts cancelled fell to a safe level, and the low inventory pattern weakened
price support.
The current copper price continues to define the expectation of future recession, coupled with the lack of fundamental support at this time, the copper price lost the 60,000 mark, but after a round of sharp decline, copper prices have the possibility of over-falling rebound repair, and the price has basically fallen out of the valuation level, focusing on spot replenishment is expected to make copper prices gradually stabilize.
