July 6 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

The fundamentals have not changed much overall, some refineries with limited pre-production in the Yunnan region on the supply side are ready to resume production, and the downstream demand margin on the consumption side is weakening
in the off-season.
In terms of price, because the supply and demand ends of aluminum will still benefit from the impact of the concept of "carbon neutrality" for a long time in the future, it is still recommended to treat it with a long idea in the cross-variety arbitrage strategy, such as the multi-aluminum air zinc that has been recommended in the early stage is still a better strategy in the second half of the year, unilaterally due to the recent macro uncertainty is still high, and the non-ferrous sector as a whole is affected by the macro, the short-term is still recommended to wait and see
.

It is understood that the current domestic aluminum price inventory is still in the process of decomposition, the inventory in the week has been close to 850,000 tons, due to the off-season accumulation is not expected to be as good as before, the market bullish sentiment gradually rising, aluminum prices return to Wanjiu above the shock, short-term due to macro and policy pressure has eased, aluminum prices or continue to run at a high level, The upper focus is on the 1.
95 pressure level, the lower support is 18,500; in the medium and long term, with the emergence of the off-season, the weakening of the fundamentals of aluminum prices does not rule out the possibility of shock falling, it is recommended to cautiously chase up, the operation can be temporarily wait-and-see, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum shock is stable
.