July 2 Shanghai aluminum morning review

On the macro front, the US GDP in the first quarter was revised downward, the data was less than expected, while the US and Japan domestic consumption both unexpectedly declined, at the same time the domestic June PMI index and investment fell less than expected and consumption exceeded expectations, and the macro economy has become weaker and weaker in recent days
.
The agreement reached by EU countries on immigration is a very significant development, and the rise of the euro and the weakening of the US dollar are positive
.
The offshore yuan fell below 6.
60, and the internal metal fell better than the outer market
.
Real estate regulation is still tightening, and there is still a certain degree of pressure
on the increase in nonferrous demand.
The central bank has lowered the RRR in a targeted manner, but the funds can be said to be not loose, and the continuous RRR cuts may indicate that the economy is not optimistic
.
From an economic point of view, there is a certain pressure
on nonferrous metals.

At present, the launch of new domestic production capacity has slowed down, and production has not rebounded
significantly.
However, consumption has entered the off-season, costs have also decreased to a certain extent, coupled with the negative sentiment of the market caused by the trade war, futures aluminum prices are still inevitable positive downward trend
.
However, with exports remaining strong and inventories continuing to degrade, the price decline is limited
for the time being.
Operationally, it is recommended to maintain the idea of rebound short
selling.