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Aluminum market morning comment: US inflation exceeded expectations in June, triggering market expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the dollar index reached a new high
.
Overnight, the outer disk metal continued to be weak
.
The LME three-month aluminum price closed at $2359/mt, down slightly by 0.
01%.
Shanghai aluminum briefly fell after opening low overnight, and then rebounded, with the main 2208 contract at a minimum of 17,025 yuan / ton, closing at 17,435 yuan / ton
.
In the morning, the overall transaction volume of the spot market rebounded, mainly based on the demand for long-term order execution, and the downstream still purchased
on demand.
Suppliers are a little reluctant to sell
.
The mainstream trading price in Shanghai is around 17,600 yuan / ton, which is about 20 premiums over futures
.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is around 17400 yuan / ton
.
Domestic aluminum prices fell sharply or briefly rebounded, but the current fundamental bearish status quo has not changed, although the price fell below the cost line, but there has not been a reduction in production, and in recent days in many places in the outbreak of negative news of commercial housing supply cuts, further suppressing the market's confidence
in real estate.
Although exports remained high in June, export orders have fallen
significantly recently.
Consumption in the off-season is becoming weaker
.
On the macro side, due to the rising inflation in Western countries, the aggressive interest rate hikes of central banks have become a must, and the possibility of recession has further increased, which is not conducive
to aluminum prices.
Therefore, the price rally is difficult to sustain and has limited
space.
Operationally, it is recommended to rebound the idea
of shorting.
