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JPMorgan Chase said that after the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices soared to more than $100 a barrel, consumers felt tight, but high oil prices are clearly not the only force
in the world that is currently destroying demand.
Western financial sanctions against Russia and the spread of the Omicron variant have a direct impact on oil demand, outweighing the rise
in oil prices.
As a result, the bank cut its second-quarter demand forecast by 1.
1 million bpd and lowered its daily demand forecast for the remaining two quarters by about 500,000 bpd
.
Analysts at the bank said the correction was mainly focused on Europe, which remains the center of geopolitical shocks, and said that since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the price of Brent crude oil has soared to $139 a barrel, a new high
since 2008.
JPMorgan said its baseline assumptions, including the oil market's "extreme aversion" of Russian crude, would fade
.
The bank expects "stranded" Russian oil production to fall to 2 million b/d in April and 1 million b/d forever thereafter, compared to as high as 3.
5 million b/d
in March.
This would result in Brent crude averaging $114 per barrel in the second quarter and $101 per barrel for the rest of the year
, the bank said.
