January 9 aluminum market brief comment

On Wednesday, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 14,065 yuan / ton
in the morning.
In the first trading session before noon, long and short exited each other, and Shanghai aluminum maintained a range of oscillation, and the low touched 14045 yuan / ton
.
After entering the second trading session, the bears left the market Shanghai aluminum rebounded significantly, until the afternoon, Shanghai aluminum successively broke through the 20/5/10 daily moving average, the high once touched 14190 yuan / ton, the end of the session long profit exit, closed at 14155 yuan / ton, still above all moving averages
.

The weakening of consumption near the Spring Festival increases the possibility of accumulation, and the fundamentals before the holiday weaken.

However, the tension in the relationship has made the risk aversion surge, under the high volatility of Lunaluminum, it is difficult for Shanghai aluminum to fall significantly, and it is expected that the event will be difficult to solve in the short term, and even there is a possibility of intensification of contradictions, it is expected that Hulun aluminum will maintain a high level of volatility, speculative positions are still recommended to be based on short-term operations
.

On the cost side, the overall domestic alumina price rose slightly this week, the window for imported alumina opened, and the overseas reproduction of low-price transactions superimposed on the decline in caustic soda and bauxite prices, and the subsequent alumina rebound is expected to be weak; On the supply side, Yunnan Shenhuo Aluminum Phase I production capacity of 150,000 tons and Yunnan Aluminum Heqing Yixin Phase II 210,000 tons of production capacity have been put into operation one after another, and it is expected that around the Spring Festival, the output will be released, giving certain pressure on the supply side; On the demand side, the latest social inventory of aluminum ingots was 610,000 tons, unchanged from last Thursday
.
With the end of the Spring Festival stockpiling and the impact of the production restrictions of the heating season in Henan affected downstream aluminum processing enterprises, demand further weakened, and inventories continued to accumulate.

The fundamentals gradually turned short, and then under the tight spot market, the downside of aluminum prices may be limited, and strategically, it is recommended to take advantage of the high and short short
.