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Copper market morning comment: The main Shanghai copper futures contract closed down 1.
08% to 69,490 yuan a ton
on Thursday.
Due to the large decline in futures prices, the basis widened to around
250 yuan per ton.
At the macro level, the Fed minutes showed that participants noted that it may be necessary to raise the federal funds rate
earlier or faster than previously expected, given the economic, labor market and inflation outlook.
If the economic outlook changes, the Committee should continue to be prepared to adjust the pace of
bond purchases.
Many officials said the balance sheet could shrink faster than in the previous cycle
.
The emergence of the Omicron strain has made the economic outlook more uncertain, but it is not yet believed that it will fundamentally change the path of
the US economic recovery.
Fundamentally, it is understood that Dongying Fangyuan plans to suspend and overhaul the first phase of crude refining capacity in early January 2022, which has a design capacity of 120,000 tons per year
.
Dongying Fangyuan Phase II has a design capacity of 280,000 tons/year, and the project was ignited and restarted
on October 20, 2021.
On the whole, the shock market of copper is still the same, the strength of macro bearishness may be limited in the short term, and the fundamentals have not yet entered the stocking stage
before the Spring Festival.
Strategically, it is recommended to follow the medium-term macro bearish logic, and continue to hold
short orders.
