January 6 Shanghai aluminum morning review

Last Friday night, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded to 14135 yuan / ton
.
The inventory of aluminum warehouse receipts rose slightly to 40,400 tons for two consecutive days, but there was a large gap with the position in recent months, and the risk of forcing short still existed, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots remained at a high level
of 160 yuan.
The supply side Yunnan Shenhuo and Yunaluminum Yixin have been powered on last week, and the domestic downstream processing plants will enter the Spring Festival holiday around the 10th, and the supply and demand of the aluminum market will gradually reverse.

Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots rebounded by 18,000 tons, and the inventory inflection point was basically confirmed, and the probability of aluminum prices falling before the Spring Festival was relatively large
.
At present, the average profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a very high level of more than 1500 yuan / ton, and it is recommended that spot shipments reduce inventory, and the market maintains a rebound short
selling.

This year's Spring Festival is earlier than previous years, downstream manufacturers are basically stocked, consumption before the Spring Festival is not optimistic, and it is expected that electrolytic aluminum social inventory will continue to accumulate
.
Alumina prices remain low, aluminum enterprises are very profitable at low cost, profits drive the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production, Yunnan Shenhuo and Yun Aluminum Heqing have successively been electrified and resumed production, and the subsequent supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is still very large
.
It is expected that the probability of a medium and long-term decline in Shanghai aluminum is relatively large, but the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange continue to decrease, and investors can continue to hold short orders
of Shanghai aluminum AL2002 when they continue to decrease.