January 4 aluminum market brief comment

On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 2002 opened at 14,000 yuan / ton
in the morning.
After the opening, last night's profit short short closed the market, Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly after the bears entered the pursuit again, before the afternoon the bears touched 13980 yuan / ton
.
In the afternoon, the bulls took the initiative to enter the market at a low level, and Shanghai aluminum quickly repaired the intraday decline, and the end of the session bears hed the safe haven and left the market Shanghai aluminum rebound broke through the 20-day moving average barrier, touching 14090 yuan / ton at a high and closing at 14085 yuan / ton
.

On the supply side: the commissioning and resumption of production continued to advance steadily, reflecting the output in the first quarter; Cost side: alumina prices stabilized slightly, and industry profits remained at a high level
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic spot continued to rise sharply, while LME was heavily discounted; In terms of stocks: LME stocks fell slightly to 1.
473 million tons, down 08,700 tons to 193,800 tons in the previous period, and social banks fell 05,000 tons to 587,000 tons
.

Although the central bank's RRR cut during the New Year's Day holiday released a favorable release, Shanghai aluminum only rose slightly and then fluctuated downward, and the core logic is that the macro benefit is not opposed to the weakening of the supply and demand structure
.
At this stage, as the resumption of production continues to be released, and the downstream replenishment is about to end, the Spring Festival is down, and the inventory is beginning to reach an inflection point
.
The previous rise driven by the spot shortage will gradually lose its maximum momentum, and aluminum prices are expected to fall out of a wave of
phases.
Operationally, it is recommended to enter the test above
the fourth.