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January 27 Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment

 Last Update: 2022-12-24
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum 2203 closed at 21515 up 50, LME aluminum closed at 3100 up 5; On the macro front, the rising Russia-Ukraine crisis and geopolitical tensions may lead to soaring oil and gas prices and aggravate the tight energy supply situation in Europe; The Fed's interest rate decision supports a rate hike in March, while lock-in will begin to start after the rate hike, in line with market expectations
.

Shanghai aluminum

European natural gas prices have risen sharply, Hydro, Alcoa and other European aluminum plants have begun to reduce production, France Dunkirk aluminum plant due to the electricity price does not reduce the release of continued production reduction signals, production reduction expectations still exist, production reduction makes the European spot aluminum premium soar.

The pressure of power rationing in Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia has eased, and the power rationing capacity has partially resumed production
.
Due to the production restrictions of the Winter Olympics, the supply of alumina in Shandong is in short supply, and the price is rising rapidly, and the market is expected to have little impact on the production of electrolytic aluminum; In addition, Shanxi and Henan alumina may also have corresponding control measures
during this period.

Approaching the Spring Festival, downstream demand stopped, inventory has entered the accumulation stage, spot face weakened, it is expected that the price will remain volatile in the short term, but in the medium and long term due to the overall low level of internal and external inventory, overseas production reduction, the first half of the peak season is expected, domestic production is difficult to make up for the gap, medium and long-term lower support is significant
.

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