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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated
in a narrow range.
At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots fell by 02,000 tons in the process of continuous accumulation, and we paid attention to today's inventory changes
.
The recent decline in aluminum prices, coupled with the approach to the Spring Festival and concerns about transportation obstruction, has supported spot prices and premiums due to the increase in market bargain stocks
.
However, there are obvious signs of falling demand, and some downstream began to take an early holiday this week, and the epidemic in various places may further suppress consumption
.
Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai aluminum was generally under pressure, and the short configuration was the main
.
From the perspective of social inventory, it has entered the accumulation cycle in advance, but the accumulation volume after New Year's Day is decreasing, which gives some support
to aluminum prices from the psychological level.
Coupled with the willingness to bottom under a large decline, some bears chose to take profits in advance
.
In addition, the import window is closed, and the export expectation is increasing, which also supports the Spring Festival inventory of enterprises
.
However, the expectation of higher exports and the expectation of a decrease in domestic demand exist at the same time, and it is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation after the Spring Festival and market sentiment
.
However, from the perspective of smelter profits, it is still "rich", and the weakening of this round of prices has not reached the marginal price
from the bottom of the fundamentals.
If downstream enterprises prepare warehouses in advance, there is also an expectation
of demand after overdraft.
Although it is not ruled out that the short-term rebound will continue, the author still maintains bearish thinking
around the Spring Festival.
