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Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in early 2020, China has adhered to the "dynamic clearing" policy, and has achieved remarkable results in controlling the new crown epidemic
.
Correspondingly, most countries around the world have not adopted strict control measures, which has also led to their high number of infections and related deaths
Recently, the new crown mutant Omicron (Omicron) has become the main new crown epidemic strain, triggering a new round of spread around the world, and many infections have also occurred in Shanghai, Jilin and other places in China
.
Real-world data show that Omicron is much more transmissible, but also milder, with a lower likelihood of severe illness and risk of death
.
Therefore, there is a question worth pondering: Will lifting the existing lockdown measures increase the number of deaths from the new crown?
Recently, researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston Medical Center, and Georgia Institute of Technology published a paper titled: Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions in JAMA Health Forum, a sub-journal of JAMA
.
The research team conducted a simulation study to predict changes in Covid-19 mortality after easing restrictions (releasing mask requirements and social distancing) at different time points.
The death toll has rebounded sharply
.
The inevitable rebound in mortality after easing restrictions is directly attributable to Omicron's high transmissibility, with model predictions showing that Alpha and Delta would not have had such a significant rebound
.
The study also showed that delaying the easing of restrictions did not fully reduce the rebound in deaths
This study extends the traditional infectious disease model SEIR model and divides the population into susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and deceased
.
People under the age of 65 are at low risk, with a 0.
Death rates typically rebound after states ease restrictions at different times
The study shows that one of the strongest predictors of the extent to which associated deaths will rebound after restrictions are eased is the level of immunity in the community, which will be less pronounced for those communities with higher rates of vaccination and/or infection with Covid-19
.
The study's corresponding author, Professor Jagpreet Chhatwal, said the study showed that easing restrictions would lead to a rebound in Covid-19 deaths in most regions
.
Easing restrictions and returning to pre-pandemic conditions, or facing a surge in deaths, is a tough choice
The study also pointed out that the epidemic of highly transmissible Omicron will continue to cause significant losses worldwide, and if in the future a less transmissible mutant strain replaces Omicron as the mainstream, the number of cases and deaths due to relaxation of restrictions will also rebound.
will be greatly reduced
.
Overall, this modeling study shows that while the current number of new crown infections in the United States continues to decline, the new crown will still bring significant losses to the United States
.
Due to Omicron's high transmissibility, premature easing of restrictions can lead to a significant rebound in cases and deaths
Note: This study is a projection of current conditions in the United States
Paper link:
https://jamanetwork.
