It is difficult for rubber to rise to form a trend for the time being, and it is facing a great risk of pullback

As of November 1, the rubber inventory in the previous period was 482,000 tons, and 320,000 tons will be written off when it expires in November, and the total inventory is expected to be less than 200,000 tons, a large
decrease from 360,000 tons in the same period in 2018.
At the same time, it needs to be seen that the sharp decline in warehouse receipts does not mean that the production of full latex has fallen by the same magnitude, the current domestic production area is still more than a month from the shutdown, but the output has been greatly compensated, Xishuangbanna from January to September announced that the dry rubber production fell only 0.
4%, Hainan production fell tens of thousands of tons, the reduction of domestic rubber production is much lower than the decline
in the previous period of inventory.

Thailand is currently in the transition period before the high production period, with heavy rainfall but little impact on output
.
In addition, Thailand's $792 million rubber price subsidy program is currently being implemented gradually, so there is no need to worry
about output in normal weather.

Passenger car sales have improved since the second half of this year, and the cumulative decline in the first half of the year has narrowed to 11.
5%
in September.
The performance of heavy-duty trucks also exceeded expectations, with cumulative sales from January to October reaching 979,000 units, a slight increase of 0.
5%
y/y.
However, what needs to be seen is that the contribution of supporting tires to the consumption of tianjiao is low, the main market relies on replacement and export, the fourth quarter is the off-season of the export market, and since the trade dispute, China has continued to develop other overseas markets, the development potential is relatively limited, and the replacement market is affected by logistics, and the fourth quarter can not see a strong drive
.
According to the comprehensive assessment, demand may improve month-on-month in November and December, but it is still difficult to see much growth momentum
.

According to the above analysis, the increase in import arrivals in November and December has become a foregone conclusion, while it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly, and port inventories are likely to accumulate seasonally, and have shown a certain increase trend
.
The increase in inventory and the low price of tire factories in the early stage make spot procurement enthusiasm low, and it is difficult for prices to follow the market
.
The recent rise in the market was accompanied by the weakening of the futures basis, and the basis between the hybrid rubber spot and the 01 contract once again reached 1,000 yuan / ton
.

At present, the industry's mentality for rubber has gradually changed, low to do more has become a consensus, and with the bottom again and again, the psychological price continues to rise
.
However, from a fundamental point of view, the November and December market does not yet support the simultaneous rise of futures and cash, so the rise at this time may once again provide an opportunity
for the arbitrage market.